基于多元分布函数的区域洪水频率分析          下载免费PDF全文

卢韦伟  陈璐  周建中  陈华 《水文》2015,35(5):6-10

极端洪水事件的频率分析往往局限于单个站点,当研究区域内包含多个水文站点时,单变量频率分析方法,会导致低估或高估洪灾风险率。因此,需要进行区域频率分析。传统区域重现期计算方法,同一重现期对应多种设计洪水组合,而基于Kendall分布函数的重现期计算方法(KRP)有效的解决了这一问题。故本文引入三维非对称Copula分布函数拟合区域内各个站点年最大流量的相关关系,利用半参数法估计Copula函数的参数,并采用KRP推求区域洪水发生的重现期。结果表明:区域发生T年一遇的洪水概率远远大于单个站点发生T年一遇的洪水概率;KRP克服了实测序列较短的问题,且能准确估算洪水重现期。本研究为防洪部门制定防洪措施提供一定的科学依据。  相似文献   

Neogene Paleoseismic Events and the Shanwang Biota’s Burial in the Linqu Area, Shandong Province, China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

TIAN Hongshui  A. J. 《《地质学报》英文版》2015,89(4):1103-1119

Several paleoseismic events are recorded in the Neogene Linqu Group, exposed in the Linqu area, Shandong Province, China. The events were interpreted on the basis of fieldwork and laboratory analysis, which showed the presence of seismites with plastically deformed soft-sediment deformation structures in the Shanwang Formation, and of seismic volcanic rocks in the Yaoshan Formation which show brittle deformation. The earthquake-triggered soft-sediment deformations in the seismites include load structures, ball-and-pillow structures, flame structures, pillow-like beds, boudinage structures, slump folds, syn-depositional faults, veins of liquefied sand, and dikes of liquefied sandy lime-mud. The seismic activity is also reflected in what might be called ‘brittle seismites'; these originated when, under the influence of seismic vibrations, semi-consolidated conglomerate was shattered. Moreover, volcanic activity is related to intense earthquakes that affected basalts intercalated with sand layers; these successions are known as ‘seismic volcanic rocks', which are characterized by veins of liquefied sand intruding the basalts. All above traces of paleoseismic activity were left from one single time span of 4 Ma with active seismicity that took place 14–10 Ma. This time span is known as ‘the Linqu Neogene Paleoseismic Active Period', which is divided into four paleoseismic episodes, which were responses to tectonic extension and basin rifting in this area. It even includes the activity of the Yishu Fault Zone during the Miocene and the Neogene. The ratios of trace elements in the seismites, w(La)/w(Sc) and w(La)/w(Th) are higher than the average value of the upper crust, but w(Th)/w(Sc) is lower; this is geochemical evidence for the basin rifting that resulted in a high sedimentation rate. The intense and frequent paleo-earthquakes are held responsible for the rapid burial of the Shanwang Biota. Secondary earthquake-induced processes(e.g. slumping of a lake shore and the strongly increased lacustrine sedimentation rate) contributed to the rapid burial of the biota.  相似文献   

高水头泄洪底孔水力学研究方法适宜性分析          下载免费PDF全文

罗永钦 《水科学进展》2015,26(2):265-270

水力学问题研究方法多样且各具特点,各类方法所获成果的异同性倍受关注。基于某水电站高水头泄洪底孔,应用物理模型试验、水力学原型观测及时均化的紊流数学模型对水力学问题进行模拟或观测,辨识出3种研究方法的适宜范围及程度,三者对于宏观水力流态、底流速、时均压力及掺气空腔的模拟成果吻合良好,水面线模拟有一定差异,原型水面波动、水舌纵向扩散更大,成果可引导此类型水力学问题的研究方法选择及成果修正。  相似文献   

气候变化情景下北江飞来峡水库极端入库洪水预估          下载免费PDF全文

黄国如  武传号  刘志雨  陈芷菁  胡健伟  尹志杰 《水科学进展》2015,26(1):10-19

以北江飞来峡水库上游为研究对象,构建了网格分辨率为0.25°×0.25°的VIC(Variable Infiltration Capacity)水文模型,应用CMIP5多模式输出的降尺度结果与VIC模型耦合,对RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下未来时期(2020-2050年)飞来峡水库的入库洪水进行预估,并根据IPCC第5次评估报告处理和表达不确定性的方法来描述预估结论的可信度。结果表明,2020-2050年飞来峡水库年最大洪峰流量和年最大7日、15日洪量在RCP2.6情景下"大约可能"呈增加趋势,在RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下"较为可能"呈增加趋势,水库防洪安全风险增大。与历史时期(1970-2000年)相比,未来水库极端入库洪水增加的可能性从大到小依次为RCP4.5、RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景,其中设计洪水100年、50年和20年一遇的洪峰流量在3种排放情景下均呈上升趋势,100年、50年和20年一遇的最大7日、15日洪量在RCP4.5情景下以上升为主,而在RCP2.6和RCP8.5情景下则主要呈减少态势。  相似文献   

漫溃堤洪水联算全二维水动力模型及应用   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

苑希民  田福昌  王丽娜 《水科学进展》2015,26(1):83-90

为应对河道洪峰流量增大和漫溃堤长历时相伴发生的洪灾现象,借鉴全二维气相色谱理论提出全二维水动力模型概念,建立了模拟河道和灌区洪水演进的漫溃堤洪水联算全二维水动力模型,并采用Roe格式的近似Riemann解对界面通量进行数值求解。模型内通过漫溃堤堰流公式成功实现河道与灌区的耦联,考虑溃口展宽变化,加密处理河道网格,采用热启动与干湿水深理论对模型进行优化,并利用加大糙率法对村庄较为密集的地形进行优化处理,尽可能反应地面真实情况。将该模型应用于黄河宁蒙段河道与左右岸灌区的漫溃堤洪水演进模拟,计算结果合理可靠,流场分布均匀光滑,初步验证了模型的精度及可靠性,研究成果对河道溃决洪水的精细仿真模拟和该地区洪水风险分析决策具有重要意义。  相似文献   

青藏高原东南缘芒康地区河流地貌演化的磷灰石U-Th/He记录     

肖萍  刘静  王伟  钟宁  曾令森  Rapha 《第四纪研究》2015,35(2)

青藏高原东南缘地处印度与欧亚板块碰撞侧向逃逸的特殊构造部位,地势起伏相对较缓,形成三江并流的独特地貌格局.然而,对于东南缘大尺度地形地貌形成机制与水系演化的认识仍存在很大的分歧.本文获得的澜沧江流域芒康地区5个基岩样品磷灰石U-Th/He年龄表明该地区在早-中中新世(23～15Ma)经历了一次区域性冷却事件,且冷却速率在5Ma期间从40℃/Ma降低到28℃/Ma以下.目前可获得的青藏高原东缘-东南缘的低温年代学数据表明:尽管川西-藏东-滇北一带具有相似地貌特征,但高海拔、低起伏地貌面的形成是穿时性的,不能将它作为一个区域上连续的等时面来计算和探讨一个统一的区域抬升启动时间;三江地区地形属于非稳态的过渡型地形,尤其芒康-左贡地区剥蚀速率的差异比较清晰地展示了澜沧江流域地形演化处于非稳态期.此外,河流下切是塑造澜沧江流域的地形地貌主要驱动力之一:干流的侵蚀速率远远高于支流的侵蚀速率;河流下切强烈的地区(如德钦)对应的侵蚀速率及地形起伏度都较大,芒康地区微弱的地形起伏度取决于较低的侵蚀速率.第三纪以来的印度-欧亚板块碰撞导致青藏高原崛起的同时,也对周边尤其藏东南三江地区的地形地貌塑造及气候变化产生重大的影响.  相似文献   

扬子地块北缘晚奥陶世赫南特期岩相古地理   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0       下载免费PDF全文

王远翀  牟传龙  梁薇  王秀平  陈超 《沉积与特提斯地质》2015,35(3):19-26

扬子地块北缘与秦岭接壤,早古生代经历了上扬子克拉通盆地(∈-O2)和隆后盆地(O3-S)两个阶段。区内发育上奥陶统观音桥组或南郑组地层,为研究赫南特期的岩相古地理,探讨赫南特期冰川事件的沉积响应奠定了坚实的基础。根据沉积特征,结合古生物组合,扬子地块北缘观音桥组可划分为滨岸相和陆棚相。按照岩性等,陆棚相可进一步划分为陆缘碎屑陆棚相、混积陆棚相。滨岸相主要由石英砂岩、钙质砂岩和含砾砂岩组成,发育少量生物,以腕足为主;而在陆棚相中,则是以含粉砂泥岩、生屑灰岩、泥灰岩夹钙质泥岩和含钙泥岩为主,富含生物,以三叶虫(Dalmanitina)、腕足以及标志性冷水、浅水Hirnantia动物群为主。在沉积相详细研究的基础上,分析了该时期的岩相古地理面貌及其空间分布。在北部和西部,继续早期的格局,持续存在汉南隆起,围绕隆起分布的是滨岸相;往南至大两会-桥亭一线,为陆缘碎屑浅海陆棚,大两会-桥亭一线往南区域分布为混积陆棚。由于在研究区,无论在滨岸地带还是浅海地区,均发育赫南特贝化石,说明在赫南特期,由于受南冈瓦纳冰川事件的影响,冰水侵进扬子北缘全区。这次冰川事件导致海平面下降,致使扬子北缘水体变浅,早期的深水陆棚变为浅水陆棚,生物也由浮游相笔石迅速变为壳相赫南特贝,早期隆起范围进一步扩大,并出现地层的缺失。  相似文献   

基于地理事件的时空数据模型及其在土地利用中的应用     

夏慧琼  李德仁  郑春燕 《测绘科学》2011,36(4):124-127

本文通过分析基于位置和基于对象的空间数据表达方法的特点,顾及与空间相关的属性与地理实体空间特征之间的相依关系,将“地理事件”引入模型,提出一种顾及“隐含”地理事件和“显式”地理事件的时空数据模型(GESTDM模型).本文提出的模型能够同时提供基于位置、基于对象和基于时间的时空表达和查询功能.将该模型应用于土地利用领域,...  相似文献   

基于多源数据的城市道路交通事件检测     

徐涛  徐爱功  胡超魁  张明月 《测绘科学》2011,36(6):91-94

针对交通事件自动检测多以高速公路、城市快速路为对象以及使用数据源单一的现状,本文提出一种基于多源数据融合的城市道路交通事件检测方法.在对信号控制下交通事件引起的交通流变化进行分析的基础上,利用杭州市城区浮动车,SCATS、Citilog、OD系统提供的实时交通数据,基于CUSUM算法构建差分流量和速度交通事件检测模型....  相似文献   

Zooplankton succession during extraordinary drought–flood cycles: A case study in a South American floodplain lake     

Griselda Chaparro  María Cristina Marinone  Ruben J. Lombardo  María Romina Schiaffino  Alice de Souza Guimarães  Inés O’Farrell 《Limnologica》2011,41(4):371-381

We examined the zooplankton abundance and composition of Laguna Grande, a floodplain wetland of the Lower Paraná Basin (Argentina), during an extraordinary drought–flood cycle that affected both the environment and the biological conditions of the lake. Low waters were characterised by remarkably high conductivities and pH values, and high phytoplankton and bacterioplankton abundances with cyanobacterial blooms, while high waters showed opposite features. In relation to zooplankton, the mean abundances of all the taxonomic groups (rotifers, cladocerans, copepods, ciliates, and heterotrophic nanoflagellates) were slightly higher at low waters. Major changes were observed in the specific composition of metazooplankton: the euryhaline species assemblage that dominated in the dry warm period was replaced by several oligohaline littoral and planktonic species characteristic of the Paraná River Basin, when the water level rose. Mean species richness values at high waters doubled those of low waters and were directly correlated to water depth. Most of the rotifers of the genus Brachionus and the cladoceran Moina micrura switched from parthenogenetic to sexual reproduction during low waters, as a response to a harsh environment and crowding. We suggest that the main changes in the environmental conditions in this eutrophic floodplain lake are driven by the hydrology, which regulates the zooplankton succession. The herein described shifts in the zooplankton structure and dynamics of Laguna Grande over an extraordinary drought–flood cycle contribute to the understanding of the processes that might occur under the scenarios predicted by climate change models.  相似文献